Criza economica mondiala nu pare sa fi avut mare efect in Romania pana acum. Viata merge inainte, nu-i asa? Sau nu. Piata imobiliara si investitiile sunt in impas. Muncitorii romani din strainatate vor trimite mai putini bani acasa din moment ce constructiile din Spania si Italia s-au oprit. Economia va fi afectata. In ce masura? Nimeni nu stie.

Urmariti bursa de la Bucuresti de exemplu. Indicele principal a scazut cu aproape 60% anul acesta (poate ca maine a scadea cu 70% sau poate doar 50%, e greu de zis). Astfel, multi au mai pierdut din averi, iar altii au fost chiar distrusi.

Mai cumpara un apartament in ziua de azi… In opinia constructorilor, clientii asteapta ca preturile sa scada dar cumparatorii marturisesc ca nu pot obtine o ipoteca. De fapt, asta se intampla din cauza bancilor care nu mai ofera imprumuturi deoarece se asteapta ca preturile sa scada. Nicio banca nu mai imprumuta bani pentru un apartament daca acel apartament va valora cu 30% mai putin peste 6 luni. Asta l-ar face pe cumparator sa piarda atat de multi bani incat sa fie mai convenabil pentru el sa nu mai plateasca ipoteca si sa-i dea dureri de cap bancii cand aceasta va incerca sa ii vanda apartamentul pentru mai putin decat i-a platit constructorului in urma cu 6 luni.

Economia si finantele nu sunt stiinte. Ele sunt experimente ale fenomenului social. Preturile sunt ceea ce noi credem ca sunt, iar atunci cand incetam sa mai credem, economia sufera. In mare parte a timpului, incetam sa credem din cauza fricii de viitor, a lipsei de incredere. Dar chiar am crezut ca preturile vor urca mereu? Si chiar nu am gandit cu totii ca pretul unui apartament a devenit ridicol de mare? Intr-adevar, mancarea e mai scumpa, combustibilul e mai scump, si e un semn al realitatii faptul ca pretul caselor si al actiunilor a inceput sa scada. Sa speram ca acest fapt va ajuta oamenii sa-si achizitioneze o casa mai usor si sa-si traiasca visele fara ca economia sa fie afecatata atat de mult incat sa fie din ce in ce mai putin joburi disponibile.

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Standstill

The world economic crisis does not seem to have had any real effect in Romania so far. Life goes on as before, right? Maybe not. Housing and investment are both on hold. Romanian workers abroad are going to send less cash home as the construction booms of Spain and Italy come to a halt. The economy is going to be affected. How much? No one knows.

Take a look at the Bucharest Stock Market for an indication. The main index is down about 60% this year (tomorrow it may be down 70% or only 50%, hard to be precise thee days!). That has made a lot of people a lot less wealthy, and destroyed many peoples incomes.

Try buying an apartment today. The builders say that the clients are waiting for prices to come down, but the buyers say they cannot get a mortgage. Actually, it is the banks that are not giving any loans because they are expecting prices to fall. No bank loans money for an apartment if the apartment is going to be worth 30% less in 6 months time. That would make the buyer lose so much money that it might be smarter for them to stop paying the mortgage and then the bank has the headache of trying to sell an apartment for less than it paid to the builder 6 months before.

Economies and finance are not science. They are experiments of social phenomenon. Prices are what we believe them to be, and when we stop believing, the economy suffers. Most of the time, we stop believing for fear of the future, a lack of confidence. But did we really believe that prices of things would go up forever? And did we not all think that the price of an apartment had become ridiculous? True, food cost more, gas costs more, everything costs more, but it seems like a good dose of reality that the price of houses and stocks have begun to come back down to earth. Hopefully, that will make it easier for people to buy homes and live out their dreams without affecting the economy so much that fewer jobs become available.