Economia creste si mai mult!
Banca Nationala preconizeaza pentru acest semestru o crestere a economiei de 10% datorita recoltei din acest an ce pare a fi mai mare decat se anticipa. Banca a facut o treaba foarte buna ingreunand conditiile de obtinere a creditelor, dar economia continua sa creasca.
Nu e nici un secret in faptul ca preturile si salariile au crescut intr-un ritm extraordinar in ultimii doi ani. Avem de-a face cu acel tip de inflatie de care economistii se tem cel mai mult: anticiparea cresterii preturilor va creste si pretentiile salariale? Sau este vorba despre povestea unei economii care se dezbraca de hainele neproductive si subevaluate si se aliniaza nivelului european?
Iarna ne va raspunde. Bula de sapun imobiliara se va sparge complet si multi dintre noi care se simteau milionari in pamanturi si apartamente se vor simti mai putin bogati. In afara de asta, consider ca Romania isi va surprinde vecinii europeni prin cresterea continua. Pe langa toate acele povesti despre coruptie si incompetenta din Guvern, Romania are doua mari avantaje fata de verii europeni.
In primul rand, romanii muncesc mai mult decat restul Europei. Studii recente au aratat ca romanii muncesc, in medie, cele mai multe ore din toate Europa. Veti rade stiind cu ce viteza sunt construite autostrazile, dar hei!, daca un muncitor sta in lopata timp de atat de multe ore pe zi, tot invata sa sape la un momentdat, nu? Serios vorbind, am incredere ca productivitatea va continua sa creasca mai repede decat va scadea numarul de ore muncite.
In al doilea rand, romanii sunt mai tineri si mai intreprinzatori decat restul europenilor. Asta s-ar putea sa nu tina mult din moment ce tinerii fac cativa copii, migratia muncitorilor imbatraneste artificial populatia, dar Romania tot este locul cel mai prietenos pentru afaceri pentru tineri fata de vestul Europei. Intr-o tara bogata (majoritatea oamenilor isi detin casele fara credite) este mai usor sa-ti gasesti locul si sa pornesti la drum. Romania este locul perfect sa risti atunci cand esti tanar. Suntem crescuti si traim sub un stat care are grija de noi (cu un sistem social ce ofera sprijin), dar nici unul din noi nu crede ca statul va fi de partea sa atunci cand vom fi batrani, bolnavi sau pensionari. Deci, deocamdata, fara sa platim foarte mult la sistemul social, putem sa ne investim fondurile in noi aventuri (sau haine noi, masini noi, macar sa ne bucuram de clipa si de cresterea economica).
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The economy grows MORE!
The National Bank is predicting that the economy may grow at a rate of 10% this quarter as the profits of this year’s harvest look to be greater than anticipated. The bank has been doing a great job of making loans harder to get and more expensive for people to afford, but the economy keeps on growing.
It is no secret that prices and wages have been rising at an amazing pace for the last two years. Is it the type of inflation that economists fear most: spiraling anticipation of further price hikes fuelling greater wage demands? Or is it the story of an economy shedding its unproductive and undervalued skin, catching up to its European peers?
This winter will bring us the answer. The property bubble is going to burst quite completely, and many of us who thought we were millionaires in land and apartments are going to feel a lot less wealthy. Aside from that though I think Romania is going to surprise its European neighbors by continuing to grow. For all the corruption and incompetence stories told about the Government, Romania has two major advantages over its European cousins.
First, Romanians work more than the rest of Europe. Recent studies have shown that Romanians work, on average, the most hours per week of any European nation. You may laugh given the snail’s pace at which roads are built, but hey, if a guy hangs on to his shovel for that many hours a day, he must learn how to dig some time, right? But seriously, I am confident that productivity will continue to increase faster than the amount of hours people want to work decreases.
Second, Romanians are younger and more entrepreneurial than the rest of Europe. That may not be the case for long as young people are having few kids, and worker migration is artificially aging the population, but Romania is still a much more business friendly place than most of Western Europe for young people. In an asset rich country (most people own their homes without debt) it is easier to find space and get started. Younger people have the perfect metaphysical existence to take risks in Romania. We are raised and living under a caretaker state (all encompassing social system), but one in which none of us has any faith that it will be around when we are old, sick and ready to retire. So, for now, without any overburdening costs of a social welfare system, we can invest those funds in new ventures (or new clothes and cars, at least living for the moment and enjoying the economic growth).
Etichete: Angajatori, Economia, Preturi, SalariiLasati un comentariu
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